Operational Risk
Loss model vs actual losses
Financial losses from operational risk events are not normally distributed
Historical losses in Asset Managemement Industry (Global)
Next steps
Here are some apps you should try…
Model your own scenarios with
Risk Scenario Plus where you can try out different assumptions.
Input a few years of historical (annual) aggreate loss data into
Internal Loss Data Plus to produce an annual forecast of Mode, 50%, 75% and 95%-tiles.
Obtain correlations between scenarios with
Correlation Plus which links fundamental risk drivers to risk scenarios.
Look at the 'Publicly Available Loss Data' sections and what the histogram of losses look like for any key word search.
Here are some recommended literature...
Operational Risk under the IFPR Regime which compares various options firms have estimating their harms scenarios.
What does an operational risk scenario model do? This provides an explanation of a model in simple terms.
Operational Risk Scenario Assessment Template is widely used assessment template for impact and likelihood.
Assessment Template for the 'Breach of Guidelines' Risk Scenario which shows a particular use case.
Scenario Benchmarking Study Part 1 which discusses the most common scenarios across firms.
Scenario Benchmarking Study Part 2 which discusses the most common scenarios across firms.
Scenario Benchmarking Study Part 3 which discusses the most common scenarios across firms.
Scenario Benchmarking Study Part 4 which discusses the most common scenarios across firms.
Most Common Biases in a Scenario Assessment Proces discusses the biases subject matter experts experience.
Scenario Analysis under ICARA discusses the ICARA and implications for scenario assessment process.